Horn of Africa Hunger Crisis

• The WFP says that across Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, an estimated 22 million people are now acutely food insecure because of the drought.
• The Horn of Africa is experiencing its worst drought in more than four decades. The March to May 2022 rainy season was the driest on record in the last 70 years. Another poor rainy season is predicted from March to May 2023.
• Somalia’s drought has surpassed the 2010 to 2011 and 2016 to 2017 droughts in terms of duration and severity.
• Since November 2021, when the government of Somalia declared a drought emergency, the number of drought-affected people in Somalia has more than tripled to 7.8 million. At least 6.7 million people in Somalia face acute food insecurity through December.
• FEWS NET says, “up to 8.3 million people will need humanitarian food assistance through at least mid-2023 in order to treat and prevent hunger and acute malnutrition and reduce the accumulation of ongoing, hunger-related deaths.”
• In November 2022, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said that so far in 2022, 964 children died in Somalia, nearly twice as many as in 2021.
• According to UNICEF, almost two million children across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia need urgent treatment for severe acute malnutrition, the deadliest form of hunger.
• More than 8.9 million livestock, which pastoralist families rely on for their livelihoods, have died across the Horn of Africa.
• As the drought crisis worsens in Kenya, the UN and humanitarian partners in Kenya appealed for $472.6 million on Nov. 21 to help 4.3 million drought-affected people in 2023. Humanitarian assistance has provided some relief, but Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist.
• Compounding the drought are rising food prices. In June, the cost for a household in Somalia to meet its basic food needs was between 56% and 110% higher than the five-year average in some hardest-hit regions.
• In Ethiopia, 16.5 million drought-affected people need assistance in the second half of 2022, a significant increase from the 8.1 million people targeted in the first half of the year. For more, see our Ethiopia Humanitarian Crisis disaster profile.
• Trauma and grief are deeply ingrained in the Somali experience. A preliminary study by the UN, the health ministry and the national university has found that 76% of Somalis have experienced psychological disorders.

According to the WFP and FAO’s September 2022 Hunger Hotspots report, “Organized violence and armed conflict remain the primary driver of acute food insecurity across regions and in the majority of the hunger hotspots. This reflects a global trend where conflict continues to affect the largest share of people facing acute food insecurity.”

Regarding South Sudan, the report says intercommunal violence slightly increased recently, compared to the first quarter of 2022, mostly in Unity, Warrap and Jonglei states. In Somalia, conflict continues to disrupt livelihoods, particularly in central and southern areas. Ethiopia saw an intensification of conflict and interethnic violence in several regions and conflict resumed along the border between Tigray and Amhara regions after the collapse of the fragile, five‑month ceasefire.

On Nov. 21, an al-Shabab gunman killed at least three Kenyan peacekeepers in Somalia. Car bombings are also a semi-regular occurrence in Somalia, contributing to the country’s instability. On Oct. 29, at least 100 people were killed in two car bombings in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu.

The Horn of Africa remains one of the most conflict-affected regions of the world. The interconnection between climate, conflict and food security is more prominent in fragile or developing contexts. Logistical and security challenges often impede humanitarians’ access to affected people. State and non-state actors often obstruct access in the region.

After witnessing extreme events for decades, including war, famine, mass displacement and inter-communal violence, Somalis experience high levels of psychological disorders. A preliminary study by the UN, the health ministry and the national university has found that 76% of Somalis have experienced such disorders. According to Hodan Ali, Senior Policy Advisor, Health and Social Services, for the Office of the Somalia President, “invisible wounds” keep people from engaging in recovery, reconciliation, and civic engagement initiatives.

The Horn of Africa is experiencing its worst drought in more than four decades. The March to May 2022 rainy season was the driest on record in the last 70 years. After five consecutive below-average rainy seasons, the humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa is expanding and deepening.

A forecast from the Climate Hazard Center warns that the region is likely headed for a sixth poor rainy season this spring, from March to May 2023.

The WFP says, “5.1 million children are acutely malnourished in drought-affected areas of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, including 3.7 million moderately malnourished. In addition, 1.3 million pregnant and breastfeeding women in drought-affected areas need nutritional support to ensure the health of themselves and their children.”

According to FEWS NET’s November 2022 Kenya update, “cumulative rainfall is less than 70 percent of the 30-year average across most of the country, with large areas of the northwestern, northern, and eastern pastoral areas and the marginal agricultural areas recording less than 55 percent of the 30-year average.” Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in Turkana and Marsabit counties. Exacerbating the situation is unseasonably high staple food prices across Kenya.

The drought in Somalia demonstrates how such a climate crisis multiplies the threats to people on a large scale, affecting life, livelihood, agriculture, industry and national security. Millions of livestock have died in Somalia alone, as the drought damages the main source of income for 80% of the country’s population.

The April to June 2022 gu rainfall season was among the top three driest gu seasons on the historical record across most of Somalia. As seen in the map below, many parts of Somalia have experienced rainfall accumulation significantly below historical averages in 2022.

According to an FAO rainfall forecast situation report for Somalia that was released on Nov. 8: “Most regions in Somaliland and the southern parts of the country have experienced pasture regrowth and replenishment of water catchments, and this has led to a reduction in water and pasture stress. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition especially in sustaining pasture and crop growth. The central regions of Nugaal, Muudug, Galgaduud and southern parts of Bari region have not received any significant rains and the drought conditions are worsening by day.”

The consequences of Somalia’s devastating drought include displacement. Across the Horn of Africa, more than 1.7 million people have been internally displaced from their homes seeking food, water and relief. More than 70,000 new refugees and asylum seekers have also arrived in drought-affected areas since January 2022.

According to Save the Children, the drought in Somalia has led to the biggest movement of refugees into Kenya in over a decade. More than 20,000 Somalis, mostly women and children, arrived in 2022, as of early November. These displacement figures mean there is the risk of inter-communal conflict, as well as increased pressure on already limited basic services.

Experts say weather alone does not create famine because it takes people, too. The biggest obstacle to a massive relief effort is the presence of Al Shabab. There are concerns that governments and humanitarians have not heeded the lessons from earlier drought crises to better manage and respond to the current drought.

Early warning systems designed to warn against various hazards is one need that would help with limiting the impacts of climate-fueled disasters in the long run. According to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, “Countries with substantial to comprehensive early warning system coverage have one-eighth the disaster mortality of those with limited or no coverage. Sadly, only 40% of Africa is covered by such systems, and even those are compromised by quality issues.”

Crop and livestock loss driven by the drought in addition to a spike in food prices, disproportionately affect subsistence farmers and people living in conflict-affected areas.

The WFP says that 22 million people are acutely food insecure (IPC 3+) across the Horn of Africa because of the devastating drought. This figure is almost double the 13 million at the beginning of 2022. The region has felt the effects of the war in Ukraine, with supply shortages and rising fuel costs contributing to price increases.

Together, Ukraine and Russia export 28% of the world’s wheat and 15% of its corn. In 2023, crop production in Ukraine may decline by 35% to 45% in the next harvesting season, which started in July 2022. The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine varies by country but may be devastating for some, including Somalia.

Somalia, for example, relies on Russia and Ukraine for more than 90% of its wheat supplies. The World Bank has said Somalia is one of seven countries globally that face the risk of overlapping food and debt crises, which may expand the impacts there.

According to FEWS NET, “Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected to emerge in three areas in southern Somalia in April-June 2023 if current high levels of multi-sectoral humanitarian assistance are not sustained. After warnings of the likelihood of Famine (IPC Phase 5) were issued in September 2022, governments and humanitarians responded with a significant scale-up in assistance that has thus far prevented the minimum thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) from being met; however, food security outcomes remain very near the famine thresholds and high levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality, exacerbated by concurrent disease outbreaks, are still ongoing.”

In Ethiopia, the cost of the local food basket increased by more than 30% between January and June 2022. The increase in food prices across the region means that families cannot afford basic items and are forced to sell property and assets in exchange for food and other essential items.

According to WHO, the food crisis in the region is also a health crisis. In addition to severe malnutrition, which is a life-threatening condition, there is an increased risk of water-borne diseases due to limited safe drinking water, outbreaks of infectious diseases and decreased access to health services.

As the crisis grows, families often face desperate choices, including marrying off their young girls. Marriage reduces the number of people requiring food and may help families obtain a dowry that will support the remainder of the family.

According to UNICEF, “Girls as young as 12 are being forced into child marriage … In the regions of Ethiopia worst affected by the drought, child marriage has on average more than doubled in the space of one year.” UNICEF says this includes marriage to men over 60 years old. This makes girls more vulnerable to intimate partner violence, including sexual assault and ongoing poverty.

Additionally, the rates of female genital mutilation have increased dramatically across the Horn of Africa. It increased as much as 27% in one region in Ethiopia.

According to the WFP, “1.3 million pregnant and breastfeeding women in drought-affected areas need nutritional support to ensure the health of themselves and their children.”

The risk of children dropping out of school has increased significantly in recent months. Across the Horn of Africa, 15 million children are out of school and another 3.3 million are at risk of dropping out of school due to the drought.

Due to the drought, women and girls are also walking further to obtain basic resources including water, making them more vulnerable to sexual violence. According to Save the Children, the drought in Somalia has led to the biggest movement of refugees into Kenya in over a decade. More than 20,000 Somalis, mostly women and children, arrived in 2022 so far.